[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"post-6963659088880206336":3,"cmt-6963659088880206336":56,"cfg-detail":100},{"code":4,"message":5,"data":6},200,"success",{"post":7,"image_urls":20,"original_image_urls":26,"image_ids":32,"inline_images":38,"user":51,"best_comments":55,"is_author":54},{"id":8,"user_id":9,"post_type":10,"parent_id":11,"root_id":8,"content":12,"image_count":13,"reward_points":10,"category_id":14,"status":10,"visibility":15,"is_top":10,"is_hot":10,"created_at":16,"updated_at":17,"comment_count":18,"like_count":18,"collect_count":10,"view_count":19,"best_comment_1_id":11,"best_comment_2_id":11,"best_comment_3_id":11,"best_comment_updated_at":11,"end_time":11,"extended_hours":11,"total_points":11,"reward_status":11},"6963659088880206336","2351876944344121856",0,null,"芯片暴跌马斯克突然发声：中国搞懂制造后，西方暴利就彻底玩不转\n欧美大厂过去总觉得自家的工业品技术高深，躺在高额利润上就能舒舒服服赚大钱。\n\n但马斯克最近在社交平台上说了一句大实话：只要中国弄懂了一种产品的制造流程，其快速扩大产能的实际能力，往往会超过全世界其他所有国家的总和。\n\n这段话发布的同时，海外几家半导体公司的股票价格应声下跌，起因是中国的长鑫存储公布了新的存储芯片制造技术。\n\n许多人一定很好奇中国制造业是如何依靠庞大的生产规模，改变了从新能源到半导体产业的传统利润分配的。\n\n新能源被拿下：光伏和锂电是怎么改写规矩的\n\n早些年的时候，欧美和日本的企业在新能源工业领域占尽了先发优势，把进门的技术门槛修得极高。\n\n就拿光伏上游的多晶硅原材料来说，德国的瓦克化学、美国的海姆洛克这两家老牌化工企业，牢牢掌握着改良西门子法的提纯专利。\n\n在当时，它们把多晶硅的现货卖到了每公斤四百美元的高价，折合人民币接近三千块钱一公斤。\n\n那时候西方各大咨询公司的行业分析报告写得很明确，认为中国缺乏高端化工成套设备和化学提纯经验，根本不可能把提纯的生产成本降下来，只能老老实实掏高价从海外进口原材料。\n\n在动力电池领域也是完全一样的说辞，日本松下、韩国LG新能源和SK On手里握着大量的三元高镍材料专利，它们在各种国际技术峰会上公开表示，中国企业主推的磷酸铁锂技术路线能量密度太低、电池寿命短，根本跑不了长途，在市场上不可能有任何商业生存空间。\n\n但是实际的发展进程完全推翻了这些海外专家的预判。\n\n国内企业通过长期技术试验，自主攻克了冷氢化提纯技术，把多晶硅反应过程中的耗电量和原材料损耗直接压缩了百分之八十以上，原材料的提纯生产成本从高峰时的天价，压低到每公斤十几美元的量级，头部企业的现金成本更低。\n\n[img:9269502095904473600]紧接着，国内的光伏组件工厂全面放弃了效率低下的传统砂浆切片工艺，全部换成了国产自主的金刚线切割机，\n\n并在产线上全面推行钝化发射极电池技术以及隧穿氧化层钝化接触电池技术，硬生生把量产光伏电池的光电转换效率从过去的百分之十四一路拉到了百分之二十五以上。\n\n这一连串的工程落地直接把西方同行逼到了绝境，德国老牌光伏大厂 Q-Cells、美国光伏巨头 Solyndra（索林德拉）等公司由于成本完全无法竞争，相继陷入长期亏损并申请破产清算，欧洲本土的光伏制造业基本退出了历史舞台。\n\n根据国际能源署和中国光伏行业协会发布的统计数据，目前全球约九成以上的多晶硅、百分之九十七以上的硅片、九成左右的电池片以及八成以上的光伏组件，全部由中国工厂生产制造。\n\n而且在过去整整十年时间里，由于中国制造的大规模供应，全球光伏发电的平准化度电成本累计下降了百分之八十八，变成了目前全世界最便宜的工业电力来源。\n\n在动力电池行业，国内工程师跳过了日韩企业设立的化学材料壁垒，直接在机械物理结构上进行改进，去掉了电池包内部多余的结构模组。\n\n直接把电芯高密度集成到底盘和电池外壳上，让原本被断定跑不远的磷酸铁锂电动车，实际续航里程直接突破了六百公里以上。\n\n来自国际电池行业权威机构的装机数据表明，目前在全球动力电池装机量排名前十的大厂里，中国企业稳定占据了六个席位，整体市场出货份额常年维持在七成上下。而在工商业和大型电网储能电芯领域，中国企业的全球出货占比更是突破了八成。\n\n欧洲曾经集合多国资本全力扶持的本土动力电池企业诺斯伏特，因为生产良品率一直上不去且亏损严重，已经全面陷入运营困境；\n\n而包括特斯拉、福特在内的美国车企以及大众等欧洲汽车制造商，最终都不得不大量采购中国制造的动力电池，或者直接向中国企业出资购买电池生产工艺的专利授权。\n[img:9269502096007234048]\n芯片垄断松动：长鑫新架构为什么让同行坐不住\n\n在半导体行业中，动态随机存取内存长期属于高毛利领域。\n\n在长达数十年的时间里，韩国的三星电子、SK海力士以及美国的美光科技控制了全球百分之九十以上的内存市场份额。\n\n海外分析师此前普遍认为，由于外部对先进极紫外光刻机出口实施了严格限制，中国企业被困在老旧的制程节点上，永远无法在下一代动态随机存取内存架构上赶上行业龙头。\n\n三星此前公布的官方产品发展路线图，据其规划将四平方F垂直晶体管架构的量产时间指向二零二八年。\n\n但是长鑫存储公布的最新工业进展打破了这个预判。\n\n长鑫宣布成功攻克了四平方F存储架构，并准备在服务器专用的第五代双倍数据率同步动态随机存取内存中应用这项工艺，研发进度比韩国企业公开的量产时间表提前了近两年。\n\n这个技术参数在半导体物理上有着非常具体的含义：过去主流的六平方F架构，采用的是横向水平放置晶体管的设计，每个存储单元需要占用六个单位的硅片面积；\n\n当芯片线宽缩小到十纳米级别时，横向排列的晶体管会发生严重的漏电现象，电容也极易失去物理稳定性。\n\n长鑫采用的方法是垂直沟道晶体管工艺，把晶体管直接改为纵向垂直放置。\n\n通过这种微观层面的改变，单个存储单元的实际占用面积直接减少了百分之三十三点三，在相同尺寸的单块晶圆上，可以制造出来的存储位元密度提高了百分之五十以上。\n\n更关键的是，这种垂直工艺主要依靠刻蚀与薄膜沉积设备，摆脱了对最先进极紫外光刻机极限曝光尺寸的绝对依赖，能够直接提高每片晶圆产出的合格芯片总数，大幅降低单位生产成本。\n\n行业跟踪机构的数据显示，长鑫存储在全球内存市场的出货量占比目前已经达到了百分之九点五，位列全球第四名。\n\n内存芯片完全遵循固态技术协会制定的国际统一技术规范，接口尺寸、引脚定义和传输协议在全世界都是一致的通用标准。\n[img:9269502096049701376]\n一旦中国工厂的合格芯片开始大批量出厂，海外企业原先依靠控制产量来维持高单价的商业模式就会失效。\n\n美光和三星的股价之所以出现连续下挫，原因就是投资机构很清楚，在参数完全相同的标准工业品领域，一旦中国制造实现大批量产，全球现货价格的下降将不可逆转。\n\n底层逻辑揭秘：谁才能在微薄利润里真正撑下去\n\n马斯克在公开发言中还提到了航天发射领域的客观数据。\n\n他指出，太空探索技术公司凭借可重复使用火箭，入轨质量达到了世界其他国家总和的约十倍（占全球九成以上）；\n\n而在 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