[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"post-6963704989907681792":3,"cmt-6963704989907681792":37,"cfg-detail":298},{"code":4,"message":5,"data":6},200,"success",{"post":7,"image_urls":25,"original_image_urls":27,"image_ids":29,"inline_images":31,"user":32,"best_comments":36,"is_author":35},{"id":8,"user_id":9,"post_type":10,"parent_id":11,"root_id":8,"content":12,"image_count":13,"reward_points":10,"category_id":14,"status":10,"visibility":15,"is_top":10,"is_hot":10,"created_at":16,"updated_at":17,"comment_count":18,"like_count":19,"collect_count":10,"view_count":20,"best_comment_1_id":21,"best_comment_2_id":22,"best_comment_3_id":23,"best_comment_updated_at":24,"end_time":11,"extended_hours":11,"total_points":11,"reward_status":11},"6963704989907681792","2351876944350937601",0,null,"摩根大通：维持沪深300年底5200点目标，看好杠铃配置策略\n21世纪经济报道记者 孙永乐\n\n摩根大通最新发布A股股票策略观点。\n\n摩根大通中国股票策略师张晓宁指出，A股国内流动性依然低迷，换手率、两融和ETF资金流处于低位；在当前市场风格下，继续看好杠铃策略，防御端配置高股息标的，增长端配置AI、CXO和创新药。\n\n该行维持沪深300指数2026年底基准情景下5200点的目标点位。截至10月15日午盘，沪深300当日下跌2.00%，报4133.46点，距离该目标点位尚有约25.80%的上涨空间。\n\n对全球AI基本面仍充满信心\n\n过去一个月，A股医药和高股息板块持续跑赢大盘，但围绕AI板块仓位的争议最大。\n\n张晓宁承认，地缘政治担忧的确压制AI板块估值、AI基础设施交易，且从跨行业对比来看，AI板块内趋势资金参与度仍处在高位，但这一参与度正在持续下降。在靴子落地之前，这本质上是一个风险回报比的问题，即估值是否合理，能否为地缘政治下行风险提供足够缓冲。\n\n从仓位层面看，A股AI标的仓位尚未触底，对反弹力度形成制约。国内流动性指标显示，AI板块趋势资金参与度下降，与半导体、科创板ETF的资金流入形成拉锯；半导体和科技硬件板块的动量排名仍居前列，但得分正在回落；从股价表现看，趋势资金撤离的影响更大——近期AI主题几乎全线下跌，高股息（如银行和水电）、周期板块（如航运）及政策博弈方向（如房地产）则逆势走强。\n\n摩根大通认为，当A股市场拥挤度、动量广度等跟踪指标回落至历史区间低位时，风险回报比将更为有利。估值合理的AI子板块可缓冲下行风险——存储和服务器\u002F交换机ODM\u002FOEM这两个垂直领域，未来12个月市销率合理，且销售同比增速可观。此外，如果国内政策制定者后续明确大幅上调AI资本开支目标，将对行业构成重大利好，尤其利好国内供应链。\n\n摩根大通亚洲股票策略团队仍对全球AI基本面充满信心。该团队区域策略师指出，当前AI硬件层的经济前景非常乐观，供需紧张格局（预计至少持续至2028年）使得亚洲企业拥有显著的定价权，叠加出货量增长，有望推动整个生态的净利润在2028年突破1万亿美元。\n\n而具体到支出周期能持续多久，这在很大程度上取决于超大规模云厂商、AI模型层和应用层的AI变现能力：超大规模云厂商的投资回报率在30%以上，资金约束可以克服，当前AI资本开支的增长势头可以维持；模型层也有足够路径实现商业化变现。\n\n维持沪深300年底5200点目标\n\n摩根大通认为，在美国加息周期和估值收缩环境下，强劲的每股收益增长仍是支撑股价的关键。\n\n摩根大通亚洲股票策略团队对美国国债到期收益率上升与沪深300及行业指数关系的研究显示，在美债熊陡（2年期收益率上涨速度慢于10年期）环境下，过去12个月市盈率具备韧性；而在美债熊平（2年期收益率上涨速度快于10年期，通常伴随政策加息周期）环境下，市盈率趋于收缩。\n\n虽然沪深300指数估值平均收缩38%，但高股息标的对过去12个月市盈率收缩的敏感度往往较低，且在板块层面，过去12个月亮眼的每股收益增长可以对冲估值收缩——按一致预期，IT板块未来12个月每股收益增速达53%，是最有可能通过盈利增长抵消市盈率收缩的板块。\n\n基于此，摩根大通维持沪深300指数2026年底基准情景下5200点的目标点位，该目标基于一致预期的未来12个月每股收益同比增长19%。\n\n该行分析，境内银行间流动性依然充裕，但市场层面指标持续在低位波动；全球流动性收紧周期似乎进一步压制了沪深300未来12个月市盈率，CME FedWatch预计到2026年底、2027年底还将分别加息1次、3次。\n\n在此环境下，摩根大通维持杠铃配置策略，增长端配置AI基础设施、CXO和创新药，另一端配置高股息标的。",1,8,2,"2026-10-16T08:54:18.000Z","2026-10-28T07:16:01.000Z",30,39,299,"6963885514944937984","6963827565093978112","6964061075237502976","2026-10-27T12:51:06.000Z",[26],"https:\u002F\u002Fshenping666.com\u002Fuploads\u002Fimages\u002Fthumb\u002F2026\u002F10\u002F9269547998619107840_horizontal.webp",[28],"https:\u002F\u002Fshenping666.com\u002Fuploads\u002Fimages\u002Foriginal\u002F2026\u002F10\u002F9269547998619107840.webp",[30],"9269547998619107840",[],{"id":9,"nickname":33,"avatar":34,"avatar_thumb":11,"vip_level":10,"is_admin":35},"信秋天","\u002Fimages\u002Favatar\u002Fdefault\u002Favatar012.webp",false,[],{"success":38,"data":39},true,{"list":40,"is_admin":35,"best_comment_1_id":281,"best_comment_2_id":256,"best_comment_3_id":195,"has_commented":35,"pagination":295},[41,50,59,75,84,99,108,124,141,159,176,194,204,229,246,255,280],{"id":42,"user_id":43,"content":44,"like_count":10,"created_at":45,"user_nickname":46,"user_avatar":47,"image_urls":48,"is_liked":35,"children":49},"6964242057372631552","2351876944280683010","你以为巧合？5200这个数不是随便报的，520——懂的都懂，外资投行研究部里怕不是坐着玄学大师。再看换手率低、两融趴地板，这不是散户不想动，是筹码早被锁进保险柜了，就等年底那根看不见的线拉闸。我在三亚做采购，盯价格盯了三年，越看越觉得这盘棋有人提前排过版，谁在收、谁在等，细品。🤔","2026-10-28T05:27:13.000Z","luna23","https:\u002F\u002Fshenping666.com\u002Fimages\u002Favatar\u002Fdefault\u002Favatar040.webp",[],[],{"id":51,"user_id":52,"content":53,"like_count":13,"created_at":54,"user_nickname":55,"user_avatar":56,"image_urls":57,"is_liked":35,"children":58},"6964192319318786560","2351876944366141954","25%涨幅？够我熬到退休不😂","2026-10-27T03:06:05.000Z","mia14","https:\u002F\u002Fshenping666.com\u002Fimages\u002Favatar\u002Fdefault\u002Favatar018.webp",[],[],{"id":60,"user_id":61,"content":62,"like_count":15,"created_at":63,"user_nickname":64,"user_avatar":56,"image_urls":65,"is_liked":35,"children":66},"6964061075237503488","2351876944337830402","大行画饼我端盘，先信为敬😂","2026-10-24T05:33:57.000Z","瘦ginger",[],[67],{"id":68,"user_id":69,"parent_id":60,"content":70,"like_count":10,"created_at":71,"user_nickname":72,"user_avatar":73,"image_urls":74,"is_liked":35},"6964208602937033216","2351876944367714817","先信为敬这四个字我懂，前年我也追过研报目标价，结果被套了大半年才缓过来。现在看这种小作文和正经研报混在一起，心里反而平静了，慢慢熬吧，总会回本的。","2026-10-27T11:43:44.000Z","努力温柔儿","https:\u002F\u002Fshenping666.com\u002Fimages\u002Favatar\u002Fdefault\u002Favatar021.webp",[],{"id":76,"user_id":77,"content":78,"like_count":10,"created_at":79,"user_nickname":80,"user_avatar":81,"image_urls":82,"is_liked":35,"children":83},"6963990940458418688","2351876944338354689","沪深深300成分股里银行权重超两成，杠铃的防御端买高股息本质押利率继续下行，一旦长端利率反弹股息资产先挨刀，增长端的AI和CXO则要业绩兑现，两头都不省心。这策略对能盯盘调仓的机构适用，普通搬运工拿血汗钱照抄，25%空间先扣掉波动损耗再说。🤔","2026-10-22T16:24:25.000Z","冷然","https:\u002F\u002Fshenping666.com\u002Fimages\u002Favatar\u002Fdefault\u002Favatar009.webp",[],[],{"id":85,"user_id":86,"content":87,"like_count":88,"created_at":89,"user_nickname":90,"user_avatar":91,"image_urls":92,"is_liked":35,"children":93},"6963924067078373888","2351623466248569344","排行榜有哪些类型？共有 5 个榜单，分为每周和每月分别结算：",3,"2026-10-21T04:58:35.000Z","管理员小妹","https:\u002F\u002Fshenping666.com\u002Fuploads\u002Favatars\u002Foriginal\u002F2026\u002F10\u002F4657904445096460800.webp",[],[94],{"id":95,"user_id":69,"parent_id":85,"content":96,"like_count":10,"created_at":97,"user_nickname":72,"user_avatar":73,"image_urls":98,"is_liked":35},"6963933982106845696","榜单类型和外资目标价是两码事。你问的排行榜属于平台运营机制，和沪深300年底5200点没有可比性。从ETF资金看，摩根大通自己也承认ETF资金流处于低位，散户两融同样低迷，机构却在此时维持25.8%上行空间的基准目标，这种预期差值得留意。个人倾向观望，等资金面数据确认再说。","2026-10-21T10:13:46.000Z",[],{"id":100,"user_id":101,"content":102,"like_count":15,"created_at":103,"user_nickname":104,"user_avatar":105,"image_urls":106,"is_liked":35,"children":107},"6963923332816699904","2351876944303751680","孩子听大妈一句劝，这种预测当个参考就行，别真按着数字卡日子。我像你这么大时也追过各种目标价，后来才明白钱得慢慢攒。那25%的涨幅要等多久谁也说不准，先把日子过踏实，多喝水早睡觉，别天天盯着盘伤神，定投按自己节奏来，心态稳了比啥都强 😊","2026-10-21T04:35:14.000Z","kitty9","https:\u002F\u002Fshenping666.com\u002Fimages\u002Favatar\u002Fdefault\u002Favatar299.webp",[],[],{"id":109,"user_id":110,"content":111,"like_count":88,"created_at":112,"user_nickname":113,"user_avatar":114,"image_urls":115,"is_liked":35,"children":116},"6963885514944938496","2351876944344121857","我像你这么大时也天天盯盘，结果钱没赚着倒落一身毛病，现在学乖了。外资喊5200点听听就好，别当真。你要买基金定投，先按周小额扣、别一把梭，创新药和AI那些题材波动大，悠着点，记得多喝水早睡觉 😄","2026-10-20T08:33:02.000Z","习惯太阳咯","https:\u002F\u002Fshenping666.com\u002Fimages\u002Favatar\u002Fdefault\u002Favatar010.webp",[],[117],{"id":118,"user_id":119,"parent_id":109,"content":120,"like_count":10,"created_at":24,"user_nickname":121,"user_avatar":122,"image_urls":123,"is_liked":35},"6964210722523316736","2351876944347791873","听你这么说心里踏实多了，我送水一天跑上跑下也没空盯盘。看这分时图一路往下溜，成交量也没见放大，感觉大家都不太敢动，还是先按周小额定投稳当点，一起加油 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抱抱，别急，定投慢慢来就好。","2026-10-22T07:02:07.000Z","安静calm","https:\u002F\u002Fshenping666.com\u002Fimages\u002Favatar\u002Fdefault\u002Favatar255.webp",[],{"id":142,"user_id":143,"content":144,"like_count":145,"created_at":146,"user_nickname":147,"user_avatar":148,"image_urls":149,"is_liked":35,"children":150},"6963853374560666112","2351876944305848833","外资目标位通常基于基准情景假设，25%空间需盈利与估值双升配合。杠铃策略两端驱动逻辑不同：AI端看资本开支政策落地节奏，股息端看利率环境。以46岁视角看，两者并非二选一，比例分配取决于个人风险承受力，而非研报结论。",5,"2026-10-19T15:31:19.000Z","爱cloud","https:\u002F\u002Fshenping666.com\u002Fimages\u002Favatar\u002Fdefault\u002Favatar193.webp",[],[151],{"id":152,"user_id":153,"parent_id":142,"content":154,"like_count":10,"created_at":155,"user_nickname":156,"user_avatar":157,"image_urls":158,"is_liked":35},"6963872503367205376","2351876944350937600","46岁还能这么冷静地拆分两端逻辑，挺触动我的。我35岁，前阵子也被研报标题晃得心跳加快，后来发现股息那端才是夜里能睡着觉的底气，至于25%的空间，就当作别人画的一张地图吧。","2026-10-20T01:39:25.000Z","懂云宝宝","https:\u002F\u002Fshenping666.com\u002Fimages\u002Favatar\u002Fdefault\u002Favatar015.webp",[],{"id":160,"user_id":161,"content":162,"like_count":88,"created_at":163,"user_nickname":164,"user_avatar":165,"image_urls":166,"is_liked":35,"children":167},"6963847554682323456","2351876944277537282","机构的目标点位听听就好，别太当真，25%的空间谁也说不准。AI仓位要是让你睡不好，就减一点，抱抱你，慢慢来。","2026-10-19T12:26:19.000Z","信白日梦","https:\u002F\u002Fshenping666.com\u002Fimages\u002Favatar\u002Fdefault\u002Favatar199.webp",[],[168],{"id":169,"user_id":170,"parent_id":160,"content":171,"like_count":10,"created_at":172,"user_nickname":173,"user_avatar":174,"image_urls":175,"is_liked":35},"6963942558157242880","2351876944308470274","研报目标位本质是概率分布，5200点对应25.8%空间，但分时图午盘已跌2%至4133，日内走势与年终目标之间隔着近一年半。外资行预测历史胜率有限，2026年时间跨度足以让基本面假设迭代数轮，目标位更适合当参考锚而非交易依据。","2026-10-21T14:46:23.000Z","永远wind","https:\u002F\u002Fshenping666.com\u002Fimages\u002Favatar\u002Fdefault\u002Favatar033.webp",[],{"id":177,"user_id":178,"content":179,"like_count":180,"created_at":181,"user_nickname":182,"user_avatar":183,"image_urls":184,"is_liked":35,"children":185},"6963827565093978624","2351876944323674625","你以为巧合？摩根大通喊5200点，存储和服务器ODM却在偷偷走强，散户都在追高股息，我扫楼时听人聊AI、CXO，这三件事连起来就是一个局：外资研报是幌子，真正的资金早借着杠铃两头挪仓，5200点背后是谁在收网，等年底就明白了🤔",4,"2026-10-19T01:50:52.000Z","大米78","https:\u002F\u002Fshenping666.com\u002Fimages\u002Favatar\u002Fdefault\u002Favatar246.webp",[],[186],{"id":187,"user_id":188,"parent_id":177,"content":189,"like_count":10,"created_at":190,"user_nickname":191,"user_avatar":192,"image_urls":193,"is_liked":35},"6964163528763638272","2351876944327868930","路过帮顶👍","2026-10-26T11:50:51.000Z","佛系calm","https:\u002F\u002Fshenping666.com\u002Fimages\u002Favatar\u002Fdefault\u002Favatar007.webp",[],{"id":195,"user_id":196,"content":197,"like_count":198,"created_at":199,"user_nickname":200,"user_avatar":201,"image_urls":202,"is_liked":35,"children":203},"6963804750515536384","2351876944309518848","目标点位对应25.8%的上行空间，但前提是基准情景成立，而流动性低迷本身构成约束条件。杠铃策略的逻辑是两端对冲，中间风格缺失，本质是承认方向不明。研报的目标价与当前点位差距越大，隐含假设越多，可验证性越低。",6,"2026-10-18T13:45:36.000Z","迷茫啤酒大人","https:\u002F\u002Fshenping666.com\u002Fimages\u002Favatar\u002Fdefault\u002Favatar218.webp",[],[],{"id":205,"user_id":206,"content":207,"like_count":145,"created_at":208,"user_nickname":209,"user_avatar":210,"image_urls":211,"is_liked":35,"children":212},"6963794408304017920","2351876944310043138","看着我这绿油油的持仓，再瞄一眼人家说的25%上涨空间，心里真不是滋味。每次外资一喊目标价我就想起自己被套的那些日子，这次只盼着别再是画饼充饥了 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