[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"post-6963709482656858624":3,"cmt-6963709482656858624":47,"cfg-detail":70},{"code":4,"message":5,"data":6},200,"success",{"post":7,"image_urls":20,"original_image_urls":22,"image_ids":24,"inline_images":26,"user":42,"best_comments":46,"is_author":45},{"id":8,"user_id":9,"post_type":10,"parent_id":11,"root_id":8,"content":12,"image_count":13,"reward_points":10,"category_id":13,"status":10,"visibility":14,"is_top":10,"is_hot":10,"created_at":15,"updated_at":16,"comment_count":14,"like_count":14,"collect_count":13,"view_count":17,"best_comment_1_id":18,"best_comment_2_id":11,"best_comment_3_id":11,"best_comment_updated_at":19,"end_time":11,"extended_hours":11,"total_points":11,"reward_status":11},"6963709482656858624","2351876944344121856",0,null,"两款燃油车杀回销量前十，全都来自一个品牌，也是燃油车最后独苗\n\n\n本文作者——宋西｜萨拉曼卡大学社会学硕士\n\n9月汽车销售榜单一出来，很多人又兴奋了：燃油车是不是回来了？\n\n2026年以来，燃油车在新车销售中的份额持续缩减，甚至在5月和8月两度完全退出乘用车零售销量前十。\n\n然而9月，两款燃油车重新杀回榜单。\n\n卡罗拉锐放以16865辆位列第六，RAV4荣放以16738辆排名第八。\n\n两款都来自一汽丰田，也都有油电混动版。\n\n所以，这到底算是传统燃油车的“绝地反击”，还是HEV给燃油车阵营“续命”呢？\n\n回望2026年前九个月，燃油车在销量前十榜单中的表现如同过山车一般。\n\n1月时，燃油车在前十中还占据7席；\n\n3月也仍有5款；\n\n5月，燃油车首次完全退出前十，排位前16位的车型均为新能源车；\n\n6月，丰田凯美瑞与大众朗逸曾双双回榜，打破僵局；\n\n然而8月，前十榜单再次被新能源全部包揽，燃油车无一上榜。\n9月，终于有两款丰田SUV重新回榜。\n\n九个月内从7席到0席再反弹，说明燃油车在头部榜单中的“进出”具有明显脉冲性。\n\n个别车型回榜，不能直接说燃油车趋势反转了。\n\n更关键的是，头部在反弹，燃油大盘却在萎缩，剪刀差越拉越大。\n\n9月燃油车零售同比下降43%，其中纯燃油车同比下降49%，而普通混合动力车同比增长25%。\n\n从-49%到+25%，这个差距说明，真正保持韧性的不是纯燃油车，而是带“电”的混动车型。\n\n与此同时，新能源零售渗透率升至67.0%，批发渗透率达65.4%，均创历史新高。\n\n乘联分会将当月车市主线概括为“燃油加速萎缩、新能源韧性领跑”。\n\n少数头部车型回榜，掩盖不了燃油车大盘加速萎缩的现实。\n\n9月回榜的卡罗拉锐放和RAV4荣放，正好印证了这一点。\n\n跟6月回榜的凯美瑞一样，它们都提供油电混动（双擎）版本。\n\n如今，HEV为燃油车阵营提供了结构性韧性，回榜车型的混动化配置增强了其竞争力。\n\n[img:9269552490582901248]\n\n车企也开始集体转向了油电混动。\n\n2026年4月，广汽发布星源超级双擎。\n\n吉利发布i-HEV智擎混动，百公里综合油耗实测低至2.22L，发动机热效率达48.41%。\n\n奇瑞行业首发HEV 5度电品类，推出5.1kWh犀牛H油混电池。\n\n随着大容量HEV电池出现，混动车型能够支撑高算力智驾平台和驻车用电等功能，驾乘体验趋近纯电车型。\n\n“油车”与电车的体验边界正在被模糊。\n\n刚需也在支撑着HEV的基本盘。\n\n数据显示，2025年国内燃油车销量仍达1791万辆，占总销量的52.1%。\n\n尤其在三四线及以下城市，HEV渗透率已突破48%，且持续攀升。\n\n这部分消费者更看重用车稳定性与便利性，不愿依赖充电设施，也不想改变燃油车使用习惯，HEV加油即走、省油平顺的特点恰好符合其需求。\n\n今年十一期间高速充电桩供不应求，纯电车电量耗尽现场“趴窝”的不再少数，在此场景下，HEV的便利性更加放大。\n\n\n[img:9269552490641621504]\n价格与供给的边际变化也在起作用。\n\n燃油车此前大幅降价并未换来销量回暖。\n\n2026年4月常规燃油车降价车型均价13.1万元，平均单车降价2.3万元，降幅达17.2%，但大规模降价促销陷入“越降越难卖”的恶性循环。\n\n与此同时，车企将90%的研发资源投向新能源赛道后，留在市场的燃油车多为经过长期打磨的经典车型，产品成熟度高，配件维修成本低。\n\n这也给消费者提供了“放心入手”的底气。\n\n新能源替代不可逆，燃油车将萎缩并混动化\n\n我们必须承认，新能源渗透的攀升已经不可逆了。\n\n9月新能源零售渗透率攀升至67.0%，批发渗透率达65.4%。\n\n懂车帝联合中汽信科发布的《汽车以旧换新消费洞察白皮书》显示，81.2%的燃油车消费者换车首选新能源车。\n\n即便燃油车价格大幅降低，也无法扭转消费行为的拐点。\n\n经销商与保值率信号则在加速燃油车主置换。\n\n9月汽车经销商库存预警指数为63.2%，54.2%的经销商认为“金九银十”旺季效应明显弱于往年。\n\n[img:9269552490736517632]\n\n燃油车三年保值率降至51.1%，环比下跌0.4个百分点。\n\n普通合资家用燃油车三年平均保值率更低至43.12%。\n\n经销商陷入“卖一台亏一台”的倒挂困境，二手车商面临“收车就亏、库存压手”的局面。\n\n当“卖掉旧油车、换购新能源”的经济账越来越划算时，燃油车市场的萎缩会进入自我强化循环。\n\n这些信号虽不直接决定9月两款丰田SUV为何回榜，却解释了为何燃油车的头部回榜难以持续为趋势反转。\n\n回到最初的问题，混动能给燃油车“续命”吗？\n\nHEV确实可以给燃油车带来韧性。\n\n韧性，不是传统燃油车的韧性，而是混动技术自己的韧性。\n\n两款丰田SUV回榜，本质上是大盘萎缩到一定程度后，门槛降到了1.6万辆左右，刚好够得着深度折扣加混动省油双重buff的那几款车。\n\n换句话说，不是它们变强了，是及格线变低了。\n\n有行业分析说得更直接：HEV对燃油车而言是“续命良方”而非“长生之术”。\n\n它能延缓衰退，但逆转不了趋势。\n\n\n[img:9269552490843472384]\n车企密集布局混动的动作的潜台词很明确——车企不是在救燃油车，是在用混动技术把燃油车的平台价值和用户基盘尽可能多地转移出来。\n\n所以，HEV虽然在给燃油车阵营“止血”。\n\n它提供的是时间。\n\n让那些有燃油车业务的车企，在纯电和插混真正成熟之前，还能靠HEV留住一批用户，同时转进电动转型。\n\n但这些用户本来就在从燃油车向新能源迁移的路上，HEV只是让这个迁移速度慢了一点，而不是改变了方向。\n\n一个细节很能说明问题。\n\n9月HEV在燃油车总销量中的终端渗透率已经升到28%，2022年这个数字还不到5%。\n\nHEV在燃油车内部的占比越来越高，恰恰说明燃油车的基盘在剧烈收缩——分母变小了，HEV的分子就显得大了。\n\n所以，HEV确实在给燃油车提供缓冲，但这个缓冲的作用是让衰退来得慢一些、体面一些，但却做不到让燃油车重新站起来。\n\n当然，这并不意味着纯电会立刻取代所有燃油车。\n\n\n[img:9269552490958815744]\n乘联分会秘书长崔东树判断：“真正的技术走向，从来不是单一路线的替代，而是纯电、插混、HEV等三个方向长期并存。”\n\n中汽中心首席专家方海峰也表示，混合动力技术绝非仅仅是过渡方案，节能与新能源汽车多技术路线将长期多元化并存。\n\n根据《节能与新能源汽车技术路线图3.0》，到2035年传统能源乘用车将全面实现混动化。\n\n所以，燃油车不会消失，但会大幅萎缩，变成“高端精品化+工具专用化”。\n\n2026年上半年，中国汽车出口509.6万辆，燃油车占比达53.8%，出口市场成为燃油车产能的重要泄洪口。\n\n对于企业来说，能在这场转型中赢得主动的，不是固守内燃机的阵营，而是能在EV、PHEV（插电式混合动力汽车）与HEV之间灵活布局、精准匹配不同场景需求的那些。\n\n而对咱们消费者而言，也早也不是为了什么“油车”或“电车”的标签买单，而是为了自己真实的生活场景付款。\n\n选择最适合自己的即可。\n\n你会选择油电混动、插电混动还是直接上纯电车呢？我们评论区聊聊。",1,2,"2026-10-16T11:17:07.000Z","2026-10-26T15:44:47.000Z",70,"6963752532304199680","2026-10-17T18:35:46.000Z",[21],"https:\u002F\u002Fshenping666.com\u002Fuploads\u002Fimages\u002Fthumb\u002F2026\u002F10\u002F9269552491076256256_horizontal.webp",[23],"https:\u002F\u002Fshenping666.com\u002Fuploads\u002Fimages\u002Foriginal\u002F2026\u002F10\u002F9269552491076256256.webp",[25],"9269552491076256256",[27,30,33,36,39],{"id":28,"url":29,"original_url":29},"9269552490582901248","https:\u002F\u002Fshenping666.com\u002Fuploads\u002Fimages\u002Foriginal\u002F2026\u002F10\u002F9269552490582901248.webp",{"id":31,"url":32,"original_url":32},"9269552490641621504","https:\u002F\u002Fshenping666.com\u002Fuploads\u002Fimages\u002Foriginal\u002F2026\u002F10\u002F9269552490641621504.webp",{"id":34,"url":35,"original_url":35},"9269552490736517632","https:\u002F\u002Fshenping666.com\u002Fuploads\u002Fimages\u002Foriginal\u002F2026\u002F10\u002F9269552490736517632.webp",{"id":37,"url":38,"original_url":38},"9269552490843472384","https:\u002F\u002Fshenping666.com\u002Fuploads\u002Fimages\u002Foriginal\u002F2026\u002F10\u002F9269552490843472384.webp",{"id":40,"url":41,"original_url":41},"9269552490958815744","https:\u002F\u002Fshenping666.com\u002Fuploads\u002Fimages\u002Foriginal\u002F2026\u002F10\u002F9269552490958815744.webp",{"id":9,"nickname":43,"avatar":44,"avatar_thumb":11,"vip_level":10,"is_admin":45},"rain","\u002Fimages\u002Favatar\u002Fdefault\u002Favatar010.webp",false,[],{"success":48,"data":49},true,{"list":50,"is_admin":45,"best_comment_1_id":52,"best_comment_2_id":61,"best_comment_3_id":11,"has_commented":45,"pagination":67},[51],{"id":52,"user_id":53,"content":54,"like_count":14,"created_at":55,"user_nickname":56,"user_avatar":57,"image_urls":58,"is_liked":45,"children":59},"6963752532304200192","2351876944363520512","瓜子已就位 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